Karnataka: Changing winds in the South?

In Karnataka, the largest state that went to polls so far in 2023, elections were a decisive factor for both the BJP and the Congress. While the BJP lost its only bastion in the south, the INC, after a long time, recorded such a massive victory in a big state. The elections also shed light on the trends in the south before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. BJP’s continued pitch to fight state elections on Modi’s leadership proved counterproductive for it against the Congress’ localised campaign and strong state leadership which yielded results. The INC won 135 seats, and the BJP had to settle with less than half of its share at 66. However, historically, the state is known to go in different directions in the Assembly and the Lok Sabha.
In 2004, although the BJP emerged as the single largest party in the 224-member assembly with 79 seats, it had to yield power to the Congress and the Janata Dal (Secular) (JD(S)) alliance.
In the same year, the BJP won 18 of the state’s Lok Sabha seats defying the state assembly results. In 2013, when the BJP’s seat share fell from 110 (2008) to just 40, the Congress formed a government with 122 seats. Next year, in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won 17 out of the state’s 28 seats leaving Congress with just nine. This might reverse state level trends for both the Congress and the BJP as we move closer to the national elections in 2024.